Polyurethane is called polyurethane and it can be divided into polyester and polyether based on raw materials. As an organic polymer material, polyurethane is known as "the fifth largest plastic." Because of its excellent performance, it is widely used in electronics, medical, construction, building materials, automotive, aerospace, textile and other fields.
From 2006 to 2016, the annual average CAGR of global and Chinese polyurethane (MDI) production capacity was 7.94% and 27.16%. In 2016, the global and Chinese production capacities were 8.90 million tons and 3.09 million tons, respectively. China's MDI production capacity accounted for 36% of the global production capacity. As China's production capacity increases, it is expected that its proportion will increase, and China has become an important global MDI production base.
At present, MDI production capacity is mainly distributed in China, the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea and other countries. The top five global production capacities are Wanhua (1.8 million tons), Coscom (1.71 million tons), BASF (171 million tons), Huntsman (106 million tons) and Dow (73 million tons). The company's production capacity is 701 million tons. Its production capacity accounts for 82% of the total global production capacity. At the same time, due to the high barriers to the MDI industry, there are few new entrants other than Wanhua.
According to the global MDI capacity increase plan, Dow's 400,000 tons capacity will be completed in 2017. It is estimated that the global production capacity in 2017 will be approximately 8.99 million tons (859 original+40 new additions), and other production capacity will be put into operation after 2018. Taking into account the uncertainty of new production capacity, from the completion of production capacity to production, it will take a while, and it is expected that the global MDI capacity growth will stabilize in the future. At the same time, 50% of global installations are old devices and there is a high possibility of accidents.
From January to September 2017, the average operating rate of Chinese enterprises reached 65.8%. Compared with the same period in 2016, the operating rate has increased significantly. The average operating rate of Chinese enterprises in 2016 was lower than the average of the previous three years, mainly due to the frequent accidents of Chinese corporate installations. BASF in Chongqing unexpectedly stopped production in April; on September 20, MDI of Yantai Industrial Park was overhauled. At the same time, external factors are superimposed, mainly during the G20 summit, MDI devices in East China were passively stopped and production was restricted.
From 2010 to October 2017, Wanhua's aggregated MDI prices fluctuated significantly, with the lowest average price of 10,000 yuan/ton (2015.10), and the highest average price of 37320 yuan/ton (2017.9), with a price difference of 27,320 yuan/ton, a time difference of 24%. Months. The price trough reached in 2015 was mainly due to the production of 500,000 tons of MDI in China and the adoption of a price war, which caused the price of China's MDI to decline. Since June 2016, there have been accidents in Chinese manufacturers' devices, and the superposition of the G20 peak will increase the price of MDI. Since 2017, China's aggregated MDI prices have been rising all the way, but prices have dropped in the near future. From the perspective of supply and demand, prices may remain high in the future.